Today's rumors that Facebook is rushing to IPO are not surprising given that LinkedIn does so on Thursday. These are two of the biggest scams I have seen since the dot.com bubble pre-2001. Airware is what we used to call it when a company has little that is tangible to offer. But the public is familiar with what Facebook and LinkedIn do at least, so let the buyer beware.
Would that this were true with prospective investors in Glencore, the company born of Marc Rich and Clarendon (anyone remember that name?).Glencore is now wrapped up in a package that has pretty pictures of mining and metals all over it, but under the gift wrap it remains a speculative commodities trading company. The deals that it makes in some of the dodgiest regimes will be - ahem - difficult to achieve when it is under the public microscope. It therefore has to be said that making money for Glencore will be more of a challenge going forward. A trader tells me that he knew Glencore was serious about floating when it suddenly had a shiny new website. Previously, Glencore's website had a couple of office addresses and generic phone numbers.
So, what are we to make of Vitol's fancy new website? Last year when I was looking for a media relations contact there was nothing more than a phone number on the site, along with a couple of sentences describing Vitol as one of the world's largest oil trading companies. Now it has chapter and verse of what it does, along with THREE media contacts. Hmmm.
Monday, May 16, 2011
Monday, May 2, 2011
Goodbye Osama Bin Laden and Good Riddance
I rarely talk about 9/11 - unlike some people who somehow can't seem to get enough of reliving the horror. Today, however, I will say goodbye and good riddance to Osama Bin Laden. I lost 17 friends and colleagues and dozens of industry contacts at the Risk Waters technology conference in Windows on the World that day. Bin Laden's death will come as a relief to Neil and Dinah and David and Simon's families, but it won't bring them back. Sick freaks who carry out attacks such as 9/11 in the name of religion or politics or whatever the cause deserve justice. Today we can feel that a little bit at least has been served.
Monday, March 28, 2011
The Lie in LIBOR; Tip of the Iceberg
I love the furor over the London Interbank Overnight lending Rate, LIBOR. It seems one or more of the bulge bracket banks might have - gasp - lied about the rates they would offer their competitors.
I first heard of LIBOR when I started working at Telerate (later part of Dow Jones) in the early 1990's. I was on the energy desk and our reporting counterparts on the finance desk would take the LIBOR calls. The participating banks would call in, tell them their prices and the finance desk would average them and post them online for the British Bankers Association. That's it. Just taking the calls, averaging the prices - throwing out the top and bottom five - and posting them online. Then gazillions of dollars were priced using that figure. When I heard how important it was I said: "You are kidding." But no, they weren't.
Then I told them that in the oil business, gazillions of barrels of oil each day were priced using journalist's assessments of the market. They said: "You are kidding." But no, I wasn't. Then I said: "How do you know the banks don't lie about LIBOR rates? Everyone lies to Platt's about the prices." The finance desk was shocked. First, that banks would lie about their rates. And second, how could most of the world's oil supply be based on price assessments by journalists? And why would their sources lie?
When you think about it, it IS quite shocking that over 90% of global oil production - around 87 million barrels per day - is priced using subjective assessments. So Platt's moved to try and get away from the journalist's powerful input a few years ago by inventing something they call The Window. The Window is a Yahoo (or Reuters) instant messaging tool whereby buyers and sellers of oil enter their bids, offers and selling prices. Then the journalists take averages of these prices for each product or crude oil type and publish them. Despite all assurances, the oil traders do lie about what they would pay or offer or what they have done. It is, in fact, easier for them to lie using The Window than it was talking to journalists who made the assessments subjectively.
Why they lie is not difficult to understand. If you are loading a cargo in, say, Russia you would like to get it at the lowest price possible - then you can sell it at a profit. So you tell Platt's that the market is crap by lying on The Window. Then all of your buddies who are also loading will support you with their lies. The traders that have sold oil to end users that is being delivered at that time understandably want the oil to be priced higher. So they lie to The Window to try and get prices up. Therefore, it probably averages out in the end.
And so, probably, does LIBOR. If one bank wants to be able to borrow money cheaply, it will report lower interest rates. It seems likely that there will be another bank out there that wants to lend at higher rates, so it reports higher rates. See? Quits. So people can stop freaking out that financial markets participants lie. It is part and parcel of the markets.
I first heard of LIBOR when I started working at Telerate (later part of Dow Jones) in the early 1990's. I was on the energy desk and our reporting counterparts on the finance desk would take the LIBOR calls. The participating banks would call in, tell them their prices and the finance desk would average them and post them online for the British Bankers Association. That's it. Just taking the calls, averaging the prices - throwing out the top and bottom five - and posting them online. Then gazillions of dollars were priced using that figure. When I heard how important it was I said: "You are kidding." But no, they weren't.
Then I told them that in the oil business, gazillions of barrels of oil each day were priced using journalist's assessments of the market. They said: "You are kidding." But no, I wasn't. Then I said: "How do you know the banks don't lie about LIBOR rates? Everyone lies to Platt's about the prices." The finance desk was shocked. First, that banks would lie about their rates. And second, how could most of the world's oil supply be based on price assessments by journalists? And why would their sources lie?
When you think about it, it IS quite shocking that over 90% of global oil production - around 87 million barrels per day - is priced using subjective assessments. So Platt's moved to try and get away from the journalist's powerful input a few years ago by inventing something they call The Window. The Window is a Yahoo (or Reuters) instant messaging tool whereby buyers and sellers of oil enter their bids, offers and selling prices. Then the journalists take averages of these prices for each product or crude oil type and publish them. Despite all assurances, the oil traders do lie about what they would pay or offer or what they have done. It is, in fact, easier for them to lie using The Window than it was talking to journalists who made the assessments subjectively.
Why they lie is not difficult to understand. If you are loading a cargo in, say, Russia you would like to get it at the lowest price possible - then you can sell it at a profit. So you tell Platt's that the market is crap by lying on The Window. Then all of your buddies who are also loading will support you with their lies. The traders that have sold oil to end users that is being delivered at that time understandably want the oil to be priced higher. So they lie to The Window to try and get prices up. Therefore, it probably averages out in the end.
And so, probably, does LIBOR. If one bank wants to be able to borrow money cheaply, it will report lower interest rates. It seems likely that there will be another bank out there that wants to lend at higher rates, so it reports higher rates. See? Quits. So people can stop freaking out that financial markets participants lie. It is part and parcel of the markets.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Andre Dubus III and the Future of American Publishing
I walked over to the Old South Church in Newburyport last night to see Andre Dubus III discuss his new book "Townie". The place was packed - over 400 people bought tickets from our wonderful local bookstore Jabberwocky - and most had already bought (and read) the book. He told us the story of his childhood in local mill towns - Haverhill, mainly, and Newburyport - and had everyone laughing. Andre is a natural performer and something of a celebrity (after House of Sand & Fog), which is part of the reason so many people pitch up for his talks. But he is also a good writer with some cracking stories to tell, and he is supremely lucky to have been published in these hard times.
American bookstores are going out of business at a record pace; hundreds of independent stores have gone under since the financial crisis bit in 2008. Borders filed for bankruptcy this month, and is closing 200 of its coffee-klatch n' books outlets. In the UK, Books Etc. - my lifeline bookstore when I worked on Fleet Street and in the City - was bought by Borders UK and then closed down.
Digital publishing expert Mike Shatzkin in The Shatzkin Files blog said: "I’m expecting that what brick-and-mortar booksellers will experience in the first six months of 2011 will be the most difficult time they’ve ever seen, with challenges escalating beyond what most of them are now imagining or budgeting for."
The reading public appears to be the reason. In 2009 U.S. book sales were $23.9 billion, down 1.8 percent from sales in 2008, according to the Association of American Publishers.Although e-book sales are often blamed for the decline, their sales - $313 million in 2009 - comprised less than 0.015% of all book sales. E-readers like Kindle are rising in popularity, but they can hardly replace the experience of shopping for, touching, buying and reading a real book. And that experience can only happen in a bookstore.
Maybe it is the American publishing industry that's to blame for declining sales rather than Kindles and e-books. When I shop for books today (particularly in a chain bookstore) I am dismayed by the rubbish that dominates the shelves. Previously-published authors with nothing left to say, but have a winning formula, are clearly a safe bet for publishing houses. Literary fiction with a clutch of meaningless awards are next; flowery prose that is so hard to plow through that when you are finished you have to go back to the start to remind yourself what the book was supposed to be about. Then there is the bandwagon stuff: vampires, zombies. It is no wonder people turn around and leave the bookstore having bought nothing.
In the UK, where I buy most of my books, the bestseller shelves run the length of the store. There are some American stalwarts there and the prize-winners, of course, but mixed in you'll find light fiction, romantic comedy, gentle satire and historical novels. Many are from authors who have never - gasp - been published before. Publishers in the UK don't adhere to the strict, infrequent publishing schedules that American ones do.There are books released for Christmas, for Easter, for Summer holidays and many in between. Unfortunately book sales have declined there as well.
I don't have the answer. All I know is that as a wannabe novelist it is depressing to think that the hardcover or paperback book will be relegated to history. Any idiot with a computer can turn out an egotistical, unedited e-book full of psychobabble and coming-of-age crap. Well-written, thoughtful books with finely drawn characters and a good plot (yes, a goddamn plot - sorry literati) are the stuff of life. And if Andre's turnout last night is any example, I am not the only one who feels this way.
American bookstores are going out of business at a record pace; hundreds of independent stores have gone under since the financial crisis bit in 2008. Borders filed for bankruptcy this month, and is closing 200 of its coffee-klatch n' books outlets. In the UK, Books Etc. - my lifeline bookstore when I worked on Fleet Street and in the City - was bought by Borders UK and then closed down.
Digital publishing expert Mike Shatzkin in The Shatzkin Files blog said: "I’m expecting that what brick-and-mortar booksellers will experience in the first six months of 2011 will be the most difficult time they’ve ever seen, with challenges escalating beyond what most of them are now imagining or budgeting for."
The reading public appears to be the reason. In 2009 U.S. book sales were $23.9 billion, down 1.8 percent from sales in 2008, according to the Association of American Publishers.Although e-book sales are often blamed for the decline, their sales - $313 million in 2009 - comprised less than 0.015% of all book sales. E-readers like Kindle are rising in popularity, but they can hardly replace the experience of shopping for, touching, buying and reading a real book. And that experience can only happen in a bookstore.
Maybe it is the American publishing industry that's to blame for declining sales rather than Kindles and e-books. When I shop for books today (particularly in a chain bookstore) I am dismayed by the rubbish that dominates the shelves. Previously-published authors with nothing left to say, but have a winning formula, are clearly a safe bet for publishing houses. Literary fiction with a clutch of meaningless awards are next; flowery prose that is so hard to plow through that when you are finished you have to go back to the start to remind yourself what the book was supposed to be about. Then there is the bandwagon stuff: vampires, zombies. It is no wonder people turn around and leave the bookstore having bought nothing.
In the UK, where I buy most of my books, the bestseller shelves run the length of the store. There are some American stalwarts there and the prize-winners, of course, but mixed in you'll find light fiction, romantic comedy, gentle satire and historical novels. Many are from authors who have never - gasp - been published before. Publishers in the UK don't adhere to the strict, infrequent publishing schedules that American ones do.There are books released for Christmas, for Easter, for Summer holidays and many in between. Unfortunately book sales have declined there as well.
I don't have the answer. All I know is that as a wannabe novelist it is depressing to think that the hardcover or paperback book will be relegated to history. Any idiot with a computer can turn out an egotistical, unedited e-book full of psychobabble and coming-of-age crap. Well-written, thoughtful books with finely drawn characters and a good plot (yes, a goddamn plot - sorry literati) are the stuff of life. And if Andre's turnout last night is any example, I am not the only one who feels this way.
Sunday, February 6, 2011
The Cost of Winter
The sub-Arctic, northern Canadian weather in New England this year is wreaking havoc with my life. So much snow has fallen in the Boston area (more than 70 inches and counting) that there is nowhere to put it when you go to clear the driveway. Our two car driveway is so narrow that the snowbanks are halfway up our ground floor windows and had to be cut back so that we could fit more than one car in. The leftover snow went in the back garden which now resembles the bunny slope at Sugarloaf ski area. I hate winter and New England winters were one reason I decamped at the age of 22 and moved to Europe (which is now getting its comeuppance). Now that I am back, I can't help but wonder what on earth I was thinking.
Meanwhile, on my way back from a canceled writing class in Boston last Tuesday, I calculated the cost of this winter. For me it has meant finding blokes with shovels and snowblowers and plows to take care of our various properties. At Beaver Cove, ME our plow guy had to clear the driveway 7 times between December and mid January. In Boothbay Harbor our caretaker had to shovel the walk 5 times and clear the roof once so far. In MA we have had the blokes in 6 times with some remedial work on top to cut back the snowbanks. My class in Boston has been canceled twice after I paid for and took the bus to get there and back, missing prime working hours. Several hours in mornings have been wasted shoveling and then tracking down the blokes to get it finished and mopping salty floors. I gave up on trying to fit my car into the drive (and keeping it from getting smooshed by giant falling icicles) and took it to a storage unit for the next two months. I reckon the winter has already cost me a few thousand dollars that I would really have rather spent going to the Caribbean.
But I am a small fish in the ocean. My colleagues and contacts have had to work from home more often than not. This leaves empty, heated, lit offices sucking up money and does God-knows-what to productivity. Municipalities and states are already over budget for snow removal, having to go begging for extra Federal dosh. This is on top of the serious deficits in municipal budgets already and a looming pensions crisis. (About which, BTW, Meredith Whitney is completely right. I was tipped off about the looming pensions shortfall a year ago when writing an article for CME Group Magazine, by someone who should know.)
All in all, the weather in the winter of 2010-11 could be the straw that broke the camel's back the second time. A fragile recovery may not be strong enough to withstand the costs of this winter. I know I'm not - strong enough that is. Off to Florida....
Meanwhile, on my way back from a canceled writing class in Boston last Tuesday, I calculated the cost of this winter. For me it has meant finding blokes with shovels and snowblowers and plows to take care of our various properties. At Beaver Cove, ME our plow guy had to clear the driveway 7 times between December and mid January. In Boothbay Harbor our caretaker had to shovel the walk 5 times and clear the roof once so far. In MA we have had the blokes in 6 times with some remedial work on top to cut back the snowbanks. My class in Boston has been canceled twice after I paid for and took the bus to get there and back, missing prime working hours. Several hours in mornings have been wasted shoveling and then tracking down the blokes to get it finished and mopping salty floors. I gave up on trying to fit my car into the drive (and keeping it from getting smooshed by giant falling icicles) and took it to a storage unit for the next two months. I reckon the winter has already cost me a few thousand dollars that I would really have rather spent going to the Caribbean.
But I am a small fish in the ocean. My colleagues and contacts have had to work from home more often than not. This leaves empty, heated, lit offices sucking up money and does God-knows-what to productivity. Municipalities and states are already over budget for snow removal, having to go begging for extra Federal dosh. This is on top of the serious deficits in municipal budgets already and a looming pensions crisis. (About which, BTW, Meredith Whitney is completely right. I was tipped off about the looming pensions shortfall a year ago when writing an article for CME Group Magazine, by someone who should know.)
All in all, the weather in the winter of 2010-11 could be the straw that broke the camel's back the second time. A fragile recovery may not be strong enough to withstand the costs of this winter. I know I'm not - strong enough that is. Off to Florida....
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
“If You See Anything Suspicious…”
In today’s seemingly terrorism-filled world, people are becoming accustomed to being watched and monitored. The tolerance comes from the hope that the relevant authorities will catch would-be criminals before they do any harm. (Or, at the very least, ID them after the fact for punishment.) Closed circuit television cameras (CCTVs), phone tapping, stakeouts by police are all traditional and ways of monitoring the population for criminal activities.
In London the number of CCTVs has increased exponentially in the past few years. Ignoring cries of civil liberties violated and privacy invaded, the London Metropolitan Police have been quietly increasing the number of cameras (from 21,000 in 1999 to nearly 60,000 today) leading to more criminals caught. According to BBC News and the Met, in 2010 the number of suspects identified by the camera system went up to 2,512 in 2010 compared to 1,970 identified in 2009.
When it comes to monitoring financial markets, things get a little trickier. Few regulators are equipped with the technology or the expertise to monitor markets for abuse and/or mistakes. This is partly due to a lack of money, and it seems likely that the newly GOP-led Congress will nix any budget increases. Also, the push-back from market libertarians has been loud and consistent, with legions of anti-regulation lobbyists beating down politicians' doors in Washington.
The regulators appear resolute regardless. There are already proposals on the table as they prepare to define and enforce new rules under the Dodd-Frank Act. In the case of the Volcker Rule, the authorities are proposing a three tiered approach. First "tripwires", such as the length of time a trader holds a position, its size or riskiness, would alert banks’ compliance departments who would then (#2) quiz the trader on the nature of the position. And (#3) regulators that keep inspectors on banks’ premises would see the tripwires and monitor both traders and compliance departments.
Over at the CFTC, regulators are looking at a similar approach to monitoring and controlling position limits on products such as oil and metals with a "points" system that would give the CFTC monthly reports that it could use to red-flag traders with large positions. The tracking and red flag approach is definitely moving in the right direction. Investor confidence, already at worrying lows, is in danger of becoming pandemic if nothing is done.
A TABB Group survey revealed that 63% of respondents believe that the recent insider trading probe has put a damper on investor confidence. Because the recent insider trading arrests in the U.S. have been in prominent mutual funds and hedge funds, ordinary investors could be more wary about investing in those funds and others. TABB says that, while enforcement actions can have positive or negative influence on confidence, respondents agree the current probe is having an overwhelmingly negative impact.
Regulators have a mandate to protect investors, and the best way to do this is by using monitoring and surveillance technology to help catch insider trading, market manipulation and avoid fat fingered trading errors. Congress needs to give them the wherewithal, and naysayers need to remember that CCTVs catch criminals.
(This blog also ran on TABB Forum: www.TABBForum.com)
In London the number of CCTVs has increased exponentially in the past few years. Ignoring cries of civil liberties violated and privacy invaded, the London Metropolitan Police have been quietly increasing the number of cameras (from 21,000 in 1999 to nearly 60,000 today) leading to more criminals caught. According to BBC News and the Met, in 2010 the number of suspects identified by the camera system went up to 2,512 in 2010 compared to 1,970 identified in 2009.
When it comes to monitoring financial markets, things get a little trickier. Few regulators are equipped with the technology or the expertise to monitor markets for abuse and/or mistakes. This is partly due to a lack of money, and it seems likely that the newly GOP-led Congress will nix any budget increases. Also, the push-back from market libertarians has been loud and consistent, with legions of anti-regulation lobbyists beating down politicians' doors in Washington.
The regulators appear resolute regardless. There are already proposals on the table as they prepare to define and enforce new rules under the Dodd-Frank Act. In the case of the Volcker Rule, the authorities are proposing a three tiered approach. First "tripwires", such as the length of time a trader holds a position, its size or riskiness, would alert banks’ compliance departments who would then (#2) quiz the trader on the nature of the position. And (#3) regulators that keep inspectors on banks’ premises would see the tripwires and monitor both traders and compliance departments.
Over at the CFTC, regulators are looking at a similar approach to monitoring and controlling position limits on products such as oil and metals with a "points" system that would give the CFTC monthly reports that it could use to red-flag traders with large positions. The tracking and red flag approach is definitely moving in the right direction. Investor confidence, already at worrying lows, is in danger of becoming pandemic if nothing is done.
A TABB Group survey revealed that 63% of respondents believe that the recent insider trading probe has put a damper on investor confidence. Because the recent insider trading arrests in the U.S. have been in prominent mutual funds and hedge funds, ordinary investors could be more wary about investing in those funds and others. TABB says that, while enforcement actions can have positive or negative influence on confidence, respondents agree the current probe is having an overwhelmingly negative impact.
Regulators have a mandate to protect investors, and the best way to do this is by using monitoring and surveillance technology to help catch insider trading, market manipulation and avoid fat fingered trading errors. Congress needs to give them the wherewithal, and naysayers need to remember that CCTVs catch criminals.
(This blog also ran on TABB Forum: www.TABBForum.com)
Saturday, January 8, 2011
CSI: Influenza
On Monday, January 2nd I awoke at 3:00am GMT to find my head pounding and my throat on fire. It was 5 hours before I had to take a flight back to Boston from London so going back to sleep was impossible. As I lay there fuming about being mugged by a drive-by flu virus, I began to construct a mental CIS-style investigation of where I could have picked up the offending virus. Everyone knows that colds and flu viruses (apart from Swine Flu) take 7-10 days to incubate. I totted up the requisite numbers and found myself on Xmas Eve in a bar in MA - before going to see True Grit (great film, BTW).
Possible Crime Scene (PCS) #1: We were having a beer and some lunch when a couple came in and sat down next to us. The man was coughing and hacking up a storm, so I suggested we move. My husband knowingly responded that the germs would travel up to 25 feet anyway so what was the point. (I was planning to sit BEHIND him, as it happens, but never mind.) We stayed put. Was he the offender?
PCS #2: Logan Airport. A very kindly British Airways employee upgraded us to Business Class. We giddily waved him a merry Xmas and went to the departures lounge where we sat in front of a woman with obvious laryngitis and a child (I guessed a boy and was correct) who had a broken, wet cough and was hacking up a storm. The kid had clearly not taken the slightest bit of notice of the Swine Flu posters all over the airport, as he was neither covering his mouth nor coughing into his armpit or elbow. Since he was sitting BEHIND me, could he have been the possible culprit?
PCS #3: Westfield Mall, London. We trotted off with mum-in-law in tow to hit Marks and Spencer's at the glorious new mall in Shepherd's Bush. (It has done precisely nothing to gentrify that area, BTW.) All around us swirled crowds of frantically shopping Brits and tourists, hoping to snag a bargain before VAT goes up by 2.5%. The number of people coughing and hacking was alarmingly high.
PCS #4, 5, 6: We saw three plays in crowded theatres: Yes, Prime Minister (hilarious, although the second lead was out ill...hmmm), Potted Panto (a scream) and The Rivals (disappointingly boring). In all three instances there was one or two loud coughers in the audience. Maybe too late to have been the offenders?
After spending most of the following week in bed I went to see the doctor, where the nurse told me I should have had a flu shot. Well, Duh. Then, yesterday, my husband - the knowledgeable one about how far flu germs can travel who HAS had a flu shot, of course - came down with the same virus. He is now sweating and swearing in bed about the offending mugger.
Lessons learned?
*A flu shot does NOT protect you from all types of flu, particularly if you are travelling.
*People are NOT heeding the US and UK government warnings about staying at home if they are ill and possibly contagious. Nor are they paying the slightest attention to the posters telling them how not to transmit disease.
*Net transatlantic flight I will pretend to be Muslim (although the blond hair is a bit of a giveaway) and wear a scarf over a medical mask.
* In future I will wash my hands more, if that's even possible. And not sit at bars during flu season. Or go to the theatre or shopping malls, or restaurants. I feel a Caribbean beach beckoning for Xmas 2011.
Possible Crime Scene (PCS) #1: We were having a beer and some lunch when a couple came in and sat down next to us. The man was coughing and hacking up a storm, so I suggested we move. My husband knowingly responded that the germs would travel up to 25 feet anyway so what was the point. (I was planning to sit BEHIND him, as it happens, but never mind.) We stayed put. Was he the offender?
PCS #2: Logan Airport. A very kindly British Airways employee upgraded us to Business Class. We giddily waved him a merry Xmas and went to the departures lounge where we sat in front of a woman with obvious laryngitis and a child (I guessed a boy and was correct) who had a broken, wet cough and was hacking up a storm. The kid had clearly not taken the slightest bit of notice of the Swine Flu posters all over the airport, as he was neither covering his mouth nor coughing into his armpit or elbow. Since he was sitting BEHIND me, could he have been the possible culprit?
PCS #3: Westfield Mall, London. We trotted off with mum-in-law in tow to hit Marks and Spencer's at the glorious new mall in Shepherd's Bush. (It has done precisely nothing to gentrify that area, BTW.) All around us swirled crowds of frantically shopping Brits and tourists, hoping to snag a bargain before VAT goes up by 2.5%. The number of people coughing and hacking was alarmingly high.
PCS #4, 5, 6: We saw three plays in crowded theatres: Yes, Prime Minister (hilarious, although the second lead was out ill...hmmm), Potted Panto (a scream) and The Rivals (disappointingly boring). In all three instances there was one or two loud coughers in the audience. Maybe too late to have been the offenders?
After spending most of the following week in bed I went to see the doctor, where the nurse told me I should have had a flu shot. Well, Duh. Then, yesterday, my husband - the knowledgeable one about how far flu germs can travel who HAS had a flu shot, of course - came down with the same virus. He is now sweating and swearing in bed about the offending mugger.
Lessons learned?
*A flu shot does NOT protect you from all types of flu, particularly if you are travelling.
*People are NOT heeding the US and UK government warnings about staying at home if they are ill and possibly contagious. Nor are they paying the slightest attention to the posters telling them how not to transmit disease.
*Net transatlantic flight I will pretend to be Muslim (although the blond hair is a bit of a giveaway) and wear a scarf over a medical mask.
* In future I will wash my hands more, if that's even possible. And not sit at bars during flu season. Or go to the theatre or shopping malls, or restaurants. I feel a Caribbean beach beckoning for Xmas 2011.
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