When UBS caught alleged rogue trader Kweku Adoboli with his hand in the till, it must have been pretty clear to other UBS traders that bonus season might be a tad disappointing. Indeed if the missing $2.3 billion wiped 40% off of third quarter profits for UBS, that new Lamborghini Gallardo could be a bit OTT. But it seems the bank had ring-fenced 90% of Q3 revenues for staff pay and bonuses. And although the new CEO Sergio Ermotti has said that the bonus pool will probably be cut (FT) it is likely to be only by 10%.
This has infuriated shareholders who believe they are left holding the bag for UBS' shocking lack of credible risk management practices. But are they holding the bag? UBS' share price on NYSE actually went UP after the scandal was revealed, and it is hovering around the same levels today as it was pre-scandal. And although one rogue trader did a hell of a lot of financial damage, the other traders appeared to be making money. Do they deserve to be punished for Kweku Adoboli's actions?
It is an age-old argument in any company that has trading desks. If one desk loses and the rest make money, do the winners get punished with lower-than-expected bonuses? The answer is invariably yes, unless they have iron-clad contracts that guarantee a share of profits. Andy Hall at Phibro had a contract like that, which is one of the reasons Citi had to get rid of Phibro - Hall's $100 million compensation during what can only be termed a market crash was considered obscene. Even though he had made Citi a lot of money (close to $2 billion).
If UBS cuts trader bonuses by 10% or more, they will probably leave for greener pastures. This leaves UBS temporarily without the money-makers as it scrambles to attract new ones. Traders outside UBS will take one look at the mess the bank got into last year and demand a premium to work there. So UBS will end up paying more for traders than it would if it paid its existing ones their expected bonuses. Shareholders have to be careful what they wish for, because the pay and bonus pool could RISE.
On the other hand, if UBS is really downsizing its investment banking arm maybe bonus cuts is a good way to achieve that.