Friday, October 16, 2009
Beware the Bad News Bears
It is freaky Friday at the end of the a very strange week where bad news bears have been roaring about unemployment, foreclosures, and government debt while the Dow Jones Industrial Average touched 10,000. I say 'touched' because the DJIA has been dancing around 10,000 for a few days and when it did come near the magical number it pulled away like a finger touching a hot iron. It finally closed above 10,000 yesterday and the baseball caps trumpeting Dow 10,000 were flying around the NYSE trading floor. Icap's analyst Walter Zimmerman gave them the "Golden Pom-Pom Award" for for shameless displays of economic or financial cheerleading with no corresponding bullish technical indications.Themis' Joe Saluzzi tried to talk ebullient CNBC anchors down off of their high and failed. Meanwhile JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are raking in the dosh thanks to interest-free credit from the Fed. Those banks with more exposure to the real world, i.e. mortgages and credit cards, are bleeding money in the third quarter. The housing market is not recovering, just the opposite. We must not forget that it was the housing market that toppled this house of cards. We went from dot com bubble to the housing bubble to the commodities bubble and now the stock market bubble. All led by a Federal government (whatever the party) who cannot bear to give the American public bad news. But the bad news bears are beginning to overwhelm even the cheerleaders at CNBC. Zimmerman warns that this rally to 10,000 is: "giving bearish RSI divergence sell signals on both daily and weekly charts". If oil prices continue their path back to $100 it may once again be the straw that breaks the bubble's back. I think I'll stick to bricks and mortar. Albeit without Chinese drywall (the next problem for the housing market).